Israel and oil | Brussels Blog

Israel and oil

In Napoleon’s day, an army marched on its stomach. Now, the fuel that drives the armed forces is not food but oil. In war, human and animal energy has largely been replaced by the power of hydrocarbons. As an example, in 2006 the U.S. military used 320,000 barrels of oil a day. It is little wonder given this fact that, of late, it has been the military in the U.S. and Germany who have been sounding the warning bell over “Peak Oil”. It is little surprise too that when, in 2009, the British Government held secret talks about the impact of Peak Oil, the Ministry of Defence was a prominent attendee.

The interest shown by the military in oil depletion reflects three facts. First, a diminution in the supply of oil adversely affects their ability to function. Second, as the oil diminishes wars will be fought to secure its supply. Third, the effect of an uncontrolled and rapid rise in the cost of oil would be economic turmoil and civil unrest. The military might therefore, have to step in to maintain public order.

With these facts in mind, it is interesting to speculate as to why Israel should recently have placed its largest ever order for military fuel with the government of the U.S.A. In August of this year Israel requested the U.S. government to supply 284 million gallons of JP-8 jet aviation fuel, 100 million gallons of diesel fuel and 60 million gallons of unleaded petrol. This quantity far outstrips the last order made by the Israeli government and raises the obvious question. Who are they thinking of attacking now? The obvious answer to that question is, of course, Iran.

From the Zionist/Israeli point of view, Iran poses a grave existential threat. Put quite simply, Israel will not tolerate an Iran that has the means to get anywhere near producing a nuclear or radiological weapon. The news that Russia has recently started fuelling Iran’s reactor at Bushehr may therefore, be the catalyst for military action.

It is possible if not likely, that the Israelis have agreed to come to the negotiating table with the Palestinians in exchange for an undertaking from the Americans that they will not intercept Israeli jets over Iraq on their way to Iran. An alternative flight path could take them over Saudi Arabia but on balance I suspect that the Saudi royal family might think that a step too far in their support of U.S./Israeli interests against Iran. What is not possible is that Israel will stop placing illegal settlements over the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. Ultimately the talks will fail, of that there is no doubt, but the Israelis are adept at postponement, obfuscation and delay. It is at least an even bet that if the Israelis do strike against Iran it will be whilst the world is warming to them for their seeming co-operation in the latest round of peace talks. Once Iran has been attacked it will be no deals all round.

Whatever the truth of the matter one fact is apparent, that is, that time is not on Israel’s side. The world needs oil from the Middle East. The fact is that although there is plenty of oil outside the region, the Middle East has over 50% of the remaining reserves and more significantly, that this oil is easily extracted and cheap to produce. The same cannot be said of the oil which is found in the Gulf or which is extracted from tar sand and shale.

Already, it is possible to hear faint voices stating obliquely one blindingly obvious fact. The Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, still have lots of cheap oil. Israel has none. Who therefore is to be our friend? At the moment, on balance, Israel is probably viewed by western governments as the good guy and Iran the bad. As oil goes into short supply that could change very rapidly.

General Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan has recently been reported as observing in trenchant terms in a Pentagon briefing, that Israeli actions jeopardise U.S. operations in Afghanistan. He cannot be ignorant of the fact that the overriding object there is to pave the way for an oil pipeline to the area of the Caspian Sea just as the overriding motive in the invasion of Iraq was to secure access to its oil. I doubt that the general is concerned solely with the interests of his soldiers. The underlying message is that attachment to Israel is not in the U.S.A’s wider interests. It is interesting to note that hard on the heels of his comments came a report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command authored by General Mattis, which painted a gloomy picture of world oil supplies being constricted in the years following 2012 with dire geo-political results. For an explicit reference to the geo-political implications of Peak Oil we should however, turn to the German Armed Forces, the Bundeswehr.

Two weeks ago a study document produced by the military think-tank, the Future Analysis Department of the Bundeswehr, was leaked to the press. It is a completely genuine document and its main author is one Lt.Col Will. In a nutshell what is says is this; Peak Oil is real and imminent and will create a number of potentially disastrous effects. It also goes on to say that in response to the reality of the problem, Germany may have to change its stance on Israel. In short it suggests that Germany will be obliged to show more restraint in its support for Israel so as to avoid alienating Arab oil producing countries.

On a slightly less dramatic note, we might recollect our own very smooth Prime Minister, David Cameron, saying to his Turkish hosts on a recent visit that the condition of the Gaza Strip was that of a prison camp and could not be allowed to continue indefinitely. Mr Cameron is a graceful and clever politician. I doubt that his observations were made simply in order to curry temporary favour with the locals. Whatever his intention, the message was far more critical of Israel than anything that was ever said by Mr Blair or Mr Brown. Turkey is a key ally and a conduit for oil from Iraq. It is also as a friend of Israel, fast losing patience with Israeli intransigence over a two state peace settlement.

What it boils down to is this. From the Zionist viewpoint If Iran is to be attacked it had better be soon because if Israel leaves it too late it may find itself abandoned by even the staunchest of its former allies.

Robert Urquhart Collins